Men’s March Madness : NCAA Tournament Top Picks for the First Round

NCAA Tournament : Men’s March Madness ,  Top Picks for the First Round. The NCAA Tournament, one of the most bet-on sporting events of the year, is here, with over $3.1 billion expected to be wagered. If you’re looking to start strong and pad your wallet, here are my five most confident first-round bets for this week.

A quick reminder: Betting against the spread (ATS) means if a team is a +5.5 underdog, they need to lose by five points or fewer (or win outright) for your bet to cash. If a team is a -5.5 favorite, they must win by at least six points to cover the spread.

Always bet responsibly and within your means. All odds are courtesy of Bet MGM as of Tuesday.

Oklahoma Sooners vs. UConn Huskies
Team to Bet: Oklahoma +4.5 (-110)

This 8 vs. 9 matchup is one of the most intriguing first-round games, pitting two-time defending national champion UConn against Oklahoma. The Huskies have had trouble containing elite guards this season, and the Sooners have just that in freshman standout Jeremiah Fears, who averages 17.0 points, 4.1 assists, and 4.1 rebounds per game.

While Oklahoma finished 5-9 over its last 14 games, eight of those losses came against NCAA Tournament teams. In fact, 12 of the Sooners’ 13 losses this season were against teams in the field of 68 or SEC opponents. Oklahoma went a perfect 13-0 in nonconference play, showcasing its potential.

UConn has struggled defensively, ranking 257th in 3-point defense (allowing 35.1%) and 291st in forcing turnovers (15.5%). Additionally, the Big East has taken a step back this year, ranking fourth among major conferences per KenPom after finishing second last year and third in 2023.

Oklahoma’s tough SEC schedule should prepare them well for this matchup. UConn looked emotionally drained and frustrated in their loss to Creighton, and the Sooners won’t make things any easier. I’m taking Oklahoma +4.5.

Utah State Aggies vs. UCLA Bruins
Team to Bet: Utah State +4.5 (-110)

Utah State’s unique 1-3-1 defense is designed to disrupt 3-point shooting and force turnovers. The Aggies excel in both areas, ranking 38th nationally in defensive turnover percentage and holding opponents to 33.8% shooting from beyond the arc (178th). UCLA hasn’t faced a defense like Utah State’s this season, and the Bruins have struggled offensively, ranking outside the top 150 in effective field goal percentage over their last 10 games.

UCLA head coach Mick Cronin has a strong NCAA Tournament record (9-3 with No. 2, No. 4, and No. 11 seeds), but the Bruins missed the tournament last year. Both teams play at a slow tempo (311th and 362nd in pace), so expect a grind-it-out, low-scoring game. Utah State has a real chance to pull off the upset, making the +4.5 and +5.5 points an attractive bet.

These are just two of my top picks for the first round. Stay tuned for more insights as March Madness kicks into high gear!